Game On

Living in Florida in the Spring is awesome. Even if it happens to be the Spring of 2009 and your state is in the middle of a drought and your economy is totally crashing around you and your job may not be there anytime soon because regulation is popular law and you want to scream and kick and punch and hit the holy hell out of every asshole who has the audacity to remind you that you should be “happy that you even have a job in this economy.” (I often tell those people that they should be happy they don’t have a broken arm in this economy—people love me.)

Excuse the run-on crankiness. It’s that kind of business climate.

At any rate, yesterday the St. Louis Cardinals played their first Spring Training game against the Florida Marlins. They tied 5-5 and then everyone bowed to each other in honor of the Japanese tradition of ending non-tournament games in ties so that everyone can save face or eat out of the same jar or something.

Anyway, the Cardinals played a game.

And now I may officially start worrying about them.

This position by position breakdown of the Redbirds is brought to you by My Third Root Beer after Four Cups of Coffee: Because caffeine makes you crazy.

Starting Pitchers
Here is the alleged proposed possible rotation for the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals:

Chris Carpenter
I drink with Chris’s cousin Allen up at The Smoky Pool Hall here in Tampa. Allen told me that Carpenter only married his wife because he got her pregnant and that he constantly cheats on her, which is why he always travels with the team even when injured. Allen also told me that Carpenter won’t last another full season again. You don’t need to be related to Carp to know that one. Nevertheless, the season HINGES on his health. Without Carp WHIPping at least a 1.1 or better (like he did in ’06), the Redbirds have no shot at the season and may want to consider taking up golf this summer. No pressure, Carp.

Adam Wainright
Something about Adam Wainright tells me he’d be a fun guy to hang out with at a festival or camping trip. He just needs to be his continually improving self and he’ll be fine. Not for nothing, but if Carp is healthy and Wainro is on, this could be the best one-two SP punch in the NL this year. What can I say? I’m an optimist.

Kyle Lohse
I umpire little league baseball. There are three kind of little league umpires: The kind that get requested by parents and coaches, the kind that get fired for not showing up and (in between) the kind who show up on time, do their job to the best of their ability (read: crappily) and keep drawing a paycheck because they consistently show up and the league needs warm bodies to fill spots. Lohse is totally that last dude. He’s good enough to be a major leaguer, not good enough to be an All Star, and he stays healthy, shows up for work and does a genuinely mediocre job. I know this doesn’t exactly sound like a ringing endorsement, but I’ll take the dude on this team. We need him.

(Wow, typing that last sentence caused me to sigh—not a good sign.)

Todd Wellemeyer
Last year Wellemeyer set a personal record for WHIP with a neat little 1.2. His career average had been around 1.5 before Dave Duncan taught him to channel his inner Tao (or whatever that madman does to get results from the Jeff Weavers of baseball). If Wellemeyer maintains his ‘08 WHIP and keeps that 2 to 1 K/BB ratio, he could easily end up being the second or third best starter on this team (even with a healthy Carp). If last year proves to be a fluke and Wellemeyer reverts to the pitcher he was before he arrived in the Lou, then you can pretty much bet the farm on one dismal summer for the Cards.

Joel Pineiro
Nolan Ryan’s last game-worn jock strap could outpitch this guy. And, in all seriousness, it’s Pineiro’s job to lose. And he’ll pitch badly enough to lose it at least once this year. Incidentally, the over/under on times this season in which I wish for the death of Jo-El Pin-Yare-Oh is sitting at a believable 23. Quite frankly, I don’t know which side to take. I guess it all depends on if he pitches good enough to bother me for an entire season or if he gets yanked from the rotation. Really, it’s anyone’s guess.

Bullpen
I will breakdown the bullpen sometime in the near future. The results just aren’t in. It is good to see Kinney back, though.

Catchers
Yadier Molina
The best defensive catcher in baseball had a lousy defensive year last year and won a gold glove (quite possibly as recognition for his hitting which makes about as much sense as awarding a commercial jet pilot a congressional medal of honor but whatever). I’d like to see him find his throwing arm again. At any rate, he’s the man and I’m happy to have him back.

Jason LaRue
I have three words of advice for LaRue (should Yadi go down): Human Growth Hormone. Come on Rue, everybody’s doing it.

First Base
Albert Pujols
I am simply not worthy.

Second Base
Skip Schumaker
The Cardinals open this camp without a second baseman of any kind. They literally do not have a second baseman. Everyone trying out for second base is converting from other positions. I am not making this up. Oh, how I wish I was making this up. All I can say about this is “Good luck, Skip.” Oh, and I have an ex-girlfriend who wants your phone number. She’s goth-crazy great in bed, Skipper. True to the ‘tude.

Third Base
Troy Glaus
He’s injured and everyone’s upset with him for not having surgery sooner or something. Like everyone in America just rushes out and has surgery every time they feel a little pain. Anyway, when he comes back seven or eight weeks into the season his streaky power hitting will be welcome. In the meantime, it looks like his position will be filled by…

Joe Mather
He’s a prospect with some experience and he needs a haircut. Also, he’s perfectly capable of averaging a homerun every twenty at-bats, which means that if Tony LaRussa can find a way to get him 500 at bats, he’ll probably hit at least 25 homeruns. Maybe more. The kid has potential but he needs to focus on plate disciple, increase his On Base Percentage and quit looking like a weirdo hippie Muppet.

Shortstop
Khalil Greene
I am not optimistic about Khalil Greene. The only thing he has going for him is the fact that the guy he’s replacing couldn’t hit his way out of a cardboard box. If this surfer-boy looking douche can hit .250, punch twenty homeruns out of the yard and score seventy runs all while playing decent defense, he’ll be an asset to this team. If not, he’ll be the second coming of the second coming of Adam Kennedy, which was not a second coming that ended well.

Outfield
My friend Dave and I rate the bars we hang out in by three major criteria, the second of which is availability and diversity of females. In short, choice is a good thing and the Cardinals have a lot of choice in their outfield. You’ve got Ankiel, Duncan, Rasmus, and Ludwick at least (Mather and Schumaker can play the outfield as well but they’re both busy learning infield positions because life is a special kind of torture). Ankiel and Ludwick should be fine and hopefully Rasmus can fill in for Duncan if he ends up sucking again and vice versa. Later in the season, this could be where Mather plays if he hits himself into a role. This bar is definitely full.

So where does that leave us? Well, by my calculations, this team will win approximately 86 games, which should be enough to win the NL Central provided that the Chicago Cubs team plane collides with the Milwaukee Brewers team plane approximately nine hundred feet above a Cincinnati Reds game.

So the rebuilding continues, the challenges await and a fun-filled March once again awaits the citizens of Florida.

And once again, like a love-stricken voyeur, I will be watching…

Your Introduction to EGH

The academic world of finance, like the academic world of pretty much anything, is utterly and completely full of shit. It is so full of shit that it is actually overrun with shit. It is buried in shit, spitting up shit and just generally coming to terms with the feces/academic theory cohabitation that, though unnecessary, is a part of what it means to study the economy.

One of the stupidest market theories ever invented goes by the moniker: The Efficient Market Theory. Whether you’re studying for the Series 7 or just taking basic economic theory courses, you will at one time have to know the definition of this stupid theory, to wit (side note: I have never used the phrase “to wit” before—please let me know if you think I screwed it up):

“In finance, the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are informationally efficient, or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information. The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future.”

What a bunch of shit, huh? That’s akin to saying, “No one can know anything so we might as well just say fuck it and use random theories to make our decisions.” In a sense, the Efficient Market Theory serves to remind all of us that life is stupid and people are a problem.

Which brings me to college basketball.

I don’t really watch it until March Madness. I don’t know why, I just find it kind of boring. I understand the game of basketball and all that and I even watched a full ten minutes of that Wake Forest/Duke game before going to the NFL Fan Experience last Thursday. I am by definition a casual fan, but I am by no means a causal bullshitter so I have come up with a theory. I call it the Efficient Gambling Hypothesis and define it as such:

“In sports, the Efficient Gambling Hypothesis (EGH) asserts that odds lines in sports are informationally correct (and no, I am not defining that goofy term because it is an utter lie) so that every bet has a fifty fifty chance of coming through. Because of this, it is impossible to consistently outperform the gambling market and beat the house by using any information that Vegas’ representatives already know, which is pretty much all available information vis a vis college basketball. Therefore the only way to beat Vegas is to get lucky. And so, proponents of the EGH recommend that you do not place a bet unless you got laid the night before and that you base all of your decisions on information Vegas does not have, like your current body temperature or love of sushi.”

So, based on this extrapolation of the realization that is the academicazation of this awesome madeupedness, I give you my college basketball picks. The bolded team is the team I pick. My explanations will be total nonsense.

West Virginia
20 Syracuse (-2)

I once accused a man from West Virginia of being a hayseed and he was one. And accused sounds like Syracuse. So there you go, Syracuse all the way.

7 Wake Forest
Miami (Fla.) (+2)

Years ago, when I was in Miami, I saw Forrest Whitaker. He looked drunk but he was with two really smoking hot chicks. And I was awake. Really, this one’s a no-brainer.

17 Villanova
Providence (+3)

Villas and novas. Supernovas. No way that my providence interferes with my pride. Proving that winning doesn’t put a dent in the details. Oh yeah, this game is all ‘Nova.

(Note: There are three hidden messages in the above. Two bucks to anyone that finds all three.)

19 Minnesota
13 Michigan St. (-8)

No reason whatsoever.

4 Duke
10 Clemson (+3.5)

Years ago, a guy named Duke introduced me to chicken gizzards. You don’t give up those kind of memories without a fight.

Texas A&M
2 Oklahoma St. (-12.5)

Today is my sister’s birthday. I feel you need to know that.

14 Memphis
SMU (-17)

Memphis is playing Southern Methodist University. I am Methodist and I live in the South. So I win. Yeah, me!

Missouri
16 Texas (-3.5)

Because Missouri is just too cold.

USC
5 UCLA (-8.5)

The other day I hocked up a loogie that looked a little bit like a the UCLA mascot, the Bruin. So there you go. Guarantee you Vegas didn’t know that piece of information.

When I say my picks are for entertainment purposes only, well believe me I’m kidding. I know they’re not entertaining.

Good luck and happy gambling.

Super Bowl Wrap Up

Holy. Motherfletching. Shit.

That was awesome. I mean, I had no bets on that game (the economy truly is tough right now—you may have noticed) and I couldn’t care less who won. I usually root for the underdog but in this case the underdog happened to be owned by a guy who robbed me of a hometown football team for six very unsettling winters, winters in which I stared blankly at NFL games trying to figure out if I liked any team enough to root for them so I was not unhappy to see the Gridbirds lose. I also hate the Steelers and like it when they lose because they always win and they have a strong fan base and well… I guess that’s reason enough.

Anyway, I just wanted to see a good game. And, better than that, I saw a freaking great game. I have lots of criticism because a lot of the play calling sucked and a ton of bad decisions were made by the referees and the final Warner fumble definitely should have been reviewed but I don’t want to write about negative stuff. I want to write only positive things about an awesome game and a decent evening. So, here are my four favorite moments about Super Bowl (use roman numerals dammit) 43.

Brenda Warner
It’s funny how it took that chick five years to figure out that women just don’t look that good with buzz cuts. Oh well, you live and you learn and all that.

Ben Roethlisberger
Make no mistake, big Ben was the best QB in this game. I don’t care what the numbers say. His ability to shake defenders and find open receivers with linemen and linebackers practically moving into his anal cavity was beyond athleticism and awesomeness.

My Neighbor
I elected to watch the game at home and alone this year because I had never watched a Super Bowl alone before, and after the NFL Fan Experience, the Bud Bowls and the general crowdedness of the City of Tampa and its surrounding areas, I was just too fucking sick of people to want to watch a game with a group of them.

My father called before the game and asked me what I was doing for game day festivities and I responded, “I’m about festivitied out” (that’s right, I make up words). “After all this stuff going on I’d just as soon ignore the crowds, hole up in my apartment and count the hours until all these fucking people go home.”

His response: “Well then…”

So I recorded the Sopranos marathon on A & E and the Super Bowl so I didn’t have to watch one commercial and I could just sit at home in peace and watch a goddamn game and America’s favorite mob family.

Then, my neighbor, a nice, if not too skinny, Latina knocked on my door, saw that I was watching the game alone and proceeded to bring by a bottle of Puerto Rican rum, a bottle of Diet Coke, a plate of vegetables and some weird onion infused sausage dish that tasted way too fattening for my current diet. She even rubbed my feet during the game. I don’t care what Goodell said, that chick was the MVP of Super Bowl (fuck Roman numerals dammit) 43. I have to hand it to her. She was on her A game last night.

Steelers’ Fans
I have never seen such a dedicated group of fat people in my life. I mean, what happens up there? Do all the hot chicks bail for warmer pastures the second they turn eighteen or do they maybe wait a year or two?

All kidding aside though, none of the ones I met were assholes. They all seemed incredibly knowledgeable about the game of football and their love for their team was so heartfelt that I truly enjoyed talking to them. Even if they turned the streets of Tampa into a jiggly fat competition.

And during the game, well they knew how to root, saving their energies for the fourth quarter wherein they unloaded the verbal equivalent of an atom bomb. Just an awesome job by a group of generally unattractive people.

So yeah, the NFL season is over. The sports lull is upon us and drinking on Sunday afternoons is no longer socially acceptable. Oh well what the hell and all that?

Just fourteen days until pitchers and catchers report.