Your Introduction to EGH

The academic world of finance, like the academic world of pretty much anything, is utterly and completely full of shit. It is so full of shit that it is actually overrun with shit. It is buried in shit, spitting up shit and just generally coming to terms with the feces/academic theory cohabitation that, though unnecessary, is a part of what it means to study the economy.

One of the stupidest market theories ever invented goes by the moniker: The Efficient Market Theory. Whether you’re studying for the Series 7 or just taking basic economic theory courses, you will at one time have to know the definition of this stupid theory, to wit (side note: I have never used the phrase “to wit” before—please let me know if you think I screwed it up):

“In finance, the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are informationally efficient, or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information. The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future.”

What a bunch of shit, huh? That’s akin to saying, “No one can know anything so we might as well just say fuck it and use random theories to make our decisions.” In a sense, the Efficient Market Theory serves to remind all of us that life is stupid and people are a problem.

Which brings me to college basketball.

I don’t really watch it until March Madness. I don’t know why, I just find it kind of boring. I understand the game of basketball and all that and I even watched a full ten minutes of that Wake Forest/Duke game before going to the NFL Fan Experience last Thursday. I am by definition a casual fan, but I am by no means a causal bullshitter so I have come up with a theory. I call it the Efficient Gambling Hypothesis and define it as such:

“In sports, the Efficient Gambling Hypothesis (EGH) asserts that odds lines in sports are informationally correct (and no, I am not defining that goofy term because it is an utter lie) so that every bet has a fifty fifty chance of coming through. Because of this, it is impossible to consistently outperform the gambling market and beat the house by using any information that Vegas’ representatives already know, which is pretty much all available information vis a vis college basketball. Therefore the only way to beat Vegas is to get lucky. And so, proponents of the EGH recommend that you do not place a bet unless you got laid the night before and that you base all of your decisions on information Vegas does not have, like your current body temperature or love of sushi.”

So, based on this extrapolation of the realization that is the academicazation of this awesome madeupedness, I give you my college basketball picks. The bolded team is the team I pick. My explanations will be total nonsense.

West Virginia
20 Syracuse (-2)

I once accused a man from West Virginia of being a hayseed and he was one. And accused sounds like Syracuse. So there you go, Syracuse all the way.

7 Wake Forest
Miami (Fla.) (+2)

Years ago, when I was in Miami, I saw Forrest Whitaker. He looked drunk but he was with two really smoking hot chicks. And I was awake. Really, this one’s a no-brainer.

17 Villanova
Providence (+3)

Villas and novas. Supernovas. No way that my providence interferes with my pride. Proving that winning doesn’t put a dent in the details. Oh yeah, this game is all ‘Nova.

(Note: There are three hidden messages in the above. Two bucks to anyone that finds all three.)

19 Minnesota
13 Michigan St. (-8)

No reason whatsoever.

4 Duke
10 Clemson (+3.5)

Years ago, a guy named Duke introduced me to chicken gizzards. You don’t give up those kind of memories without a fight.

Texas A&M
2 Oklahoma St. (-12.5)

Today is my sister’s birthday. I feel you need to know that.

14 Memphis
SMU (-17)

Memphis is playing Southern Methodist University. I am Methodist and I live in the South. So I win. Yeah, me!

Missouri
16 Texas (-3.5)

Because Missouri is just too cold.

USC
5 UCLA (-8.5)

The other day I hocked up a loogie that looked a little bit like a the UCLA mascot, the Bruin. So there you go. Guarantee you Vegas didn’t know that piece of information.

When I say my picks are for entertainment purposes only, well believe me I’m kidding. I know they’re not entertaining.

Good luck and happy gambling.